College baseball has been riding a wave of transformation—from the surge of transfer-portal activity and the rise of NIL deals to newly tightened roster limits. Now, the Pavia legal ruling adds yet another twist: JUCO experience no longer counts against the four-year NCAA eligibility clock (at least for this year as the NCAA appeals the ruling). In practical terms, if the verdict holds, it means some athletes could play two years at a junior college and then stretch up to five more at an NCAA school, thanks to redshirt possibilities.
What does this look like on the field? Think back to the “COVID years,” when older, more physically mature grad students took advantage of extra eligibility. With Pavia, that phenomenon will only intensify, sending shockwaves through the recruiting world—especially for high school prospects heading into the 2025 cycle. The seven effects listed below could be the result of the Pavia decision being made permanent at some point in combination with existing changes like the roster reduction to 34 players.
1. JUCO Is on the Rise
With the potential for JUCO eligibility rules to provide more flexiblity, expect more talented recruits to choose junior colleges as a springboard to Division I. This influx will raise the overall caliber of JUCO play and make JUCO recruiting even more competitive. It also means we’re likely to see a spike in JUCO-to-D1 transfers—particularly among the 2027 grad class and beyond.
2. A Tiered “Ladder” System Emerges
Increasingly, players view each season as an audition. If they excel at a smaller program (be it JUCO, D2, or lower-tier D1), they can “climb the ladder” through the transfer portal to a higher-profile school. In this way, college baseball starts to resemble the minor leagues, with players shifting rosters until they find their best fit—or until they land in one of the sport’s top conferences. Expect roster churn to soar, and the transfer portal to become an even more pivotal recruiting tool for both coaches and athletes. In addition, more MLB draft picks will come from top programs and the level of play become more and more concentrated at the most powerful and wealthy programs.
3. Playing Longer to Secure Grad School & NIL
NIL deals give players a financial boost that didn’t exist a few years ago. Pair that with discounted or fully funded graduate programs, and you’ve got a powerful incentive for athletes to remain in college longer. Instead of joining the lower rungs of the minor leagues, more are choosing to earn advanced degrees while still in uniform. Schools may pour more money into retaining veterans, which could reduce available resources (and roster spots) for incoming high school recruits.
4. Veteran Players Elevate Competition
With fewer MLB draft opportunities and extended eligibility, older players (ages 23 to 26) will continue suiting up at the college level. This influx of experience raises the sport’s overall competitiveness but also makes it tougher for younger players to break into lineups—or onto rosters in the first place.
5. Fewer Roster Spots for High School Recruits
Power Five teams are collectively losing around 200 roster spots (roughly six per program), and across all D1 schools, that number is closer to 1,800. Coaches will be increasingly selective when offering these limited openings. Many programs will prioritize the top 100 high school prospects or proven transfer-portal talents, leaving fewer pathways for otherwise capable high school athletes.
6. Emphasis on Positional Flexibility
Smaller rosters make versatility even more valuable. Two-way players and athletes who can handle multiple positions allow coaches to adapt to injuries and pitching constraints without expanding their bench. If you can produce both on the mound and at the plate—or roam the outfield as well as anchor the infield—you’ll have a much better shot at securing a coveted roster spot.
7. Academic Disruptions Loom
One drawback of frequent transfers is managing credit requirements. Every move risks lost credits, extended timelines, or simpler majors. For some student-athletes, academics may take a backseat to on-field opportunities and NIL deals. High-academic prospects who don’t want to compromise may forgo playing altogether or steer clear of the transfer “ladder,” especially if it means starting at a less academically rigorous program. Meanwhile, schools could see athletes consolidating into “easier” majors to keep their eligibility intact.
The Bottom Line
Between the Pavia ruling and shrinking rosters, NCAA baseball is on the cusp of major upheaval. High school recruits—especially the Class of 2025—face an increasingly competitive environment, while coaches juggle roster management, NIL considerations, and the non-stop churn of the transfer portal. For fans, the upside is a potentially higher level of play—but be prepared to see more grad students and fifth-year veterans leading the charge.
All these factors converge in a big way for the Class of 2025. This cohort will be among the first to feel the full effects of both roster shrinkage and the new JUCO eligibility rules, which extend in 2025. With so many older players staying put and JUCO transfers eyeing D1 spots, the competition for roster spots at four-year schools will intensify like never before. High school seniors who aren’t part of the elite 100 might find themselves looking at non-D1 opportunities—and even those paths are getting tougher. It’s a pivotal recruiting year where careful planning and adaptability will be key for prospects, parents, and coaches alike. To stand out, players must develop the ability to play multiple positions or bring a unique skill set to their team such as bunting, base running or specular defense.
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