The Risk of Being No. 1: A Look at MLB’s Biggest Draft Busts

What do the following players have in common? Bryan Bullington, Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Luke Hochevar, Tim Beckham, Mark Appel, Brady Aiken, Mickey Moniak, Royce Lewis, and Casey Mize.

They were all No. 1 overall picks in the MLB Draft between 2002 and 2018—and none of them lived up to the hype. In fact, you might not even recognize most of their names. That’s because, despite being the top amateur players in their draft class, nearly half turned out to be busts.

Think about that. Even with all the scouting resources of MLB front offices, teams have had less than a 50% success rate when selecting the best player in the country. That speaks volumes about how difficult it is to build a long, successful baseball career.

As of the summer of 2024, the combined career WAR of these ten players was below 20. To put that in perspective, Justin Upton—the No. 1 pick in 2005—posted a WAR of 32 on his own.

Why Did These Players Fall Short?

Pitchers: Injuries Took Their Toll

Five of the #1s were pitchers, and all of them dealt with significant elbow or shoulder injuries. Brady Aiken never even made it to the majors. Most were drafted out of college, where they had already built impressive résumés, but also logged heavy workloads. The track record of No. 1 pick pitchers suggests that even the best young arms come with major risk.

Hitters: High School Talent Struggles to Translate

All of the position players, were drafted out of high school. Royce Lewis has shown flashes of brilliance but has been plagued by injuries since being drafted in 2017. The rest of the simply never adjusted to MLB pitching.

That’s not to say high school hitters are doomed to fail—Bryce Harper and Carlos Correa also went pro straight out of high school (though Bryce took a quick JUCO stop) and became stars. But it does highlight the uncertainty of projecting teenage hitters against professional competition.

The Lesson? Scouting Is Hard

The history of No. 1 overall picks shows just how unpredictable baseball development can be. Talent is only part of the equation—health, adaptability, and even luck play huge roles in determining a player’s success. So the next time you hear a prospect being called a “can’t-miss talent,” remember that even the best scouting minds in baseball get it wrong more often than you’d think. To explore more draft picks and there performance, visit baseballreference.com or learn about first round draft pick bonuses.